Monday, 2 September 2013

Does Deadline day lead to panic signings? analysis of the 2012 summer window

Does Deadline day lead to panic signings?

There are several arguments that deadline day leads to panic signings as shown by the failed transfers of Andy Carroll and Fernando Torres for inflated fees. Having said that there is a lot of evidence of smart business being done on such a hectic day with Christian Benteke and Hugo Lloris both being signed at excellent value last season. This shows the varying statistics of success between deadline day signings and signings before the last day of the window.

Deadline day transfer business
Charlie Adam- Liverpool £4million- miss
Christian Benteke- Genk £7million- hit
Berbatov- Manchester United- £5million- hit
Clint Dempsey (Fulham, £6m)- miss
Javi Garcia (Benfica, £16m) miss
Pablo Hernandez (Valencia, £5.55m) hit
Hugo Lloris (Lyon, £13m), hit
Maicon (Inter Milan, £5.5m), miss
Matija Nastasic (Fiorentina, £12m), hit
Steven Nzonzi (Blackburn, £3.5m) hit
Stephane Mbia (Marseille, £6m) miss
Bryan Oviedo (FC Copenhagen, £5m), miss
Gaston Ramirez (Bologna, £10M) miss
Scott Sinclair (Swansea, £8m) miss
Ashley Westwood (Crewe, £2million) hit
Richard Wright (PNE, Free) miss

7 out of 16 successful- 43.75%

Santi Cazorla (Malaga, £16.5m)- hit
 Olivier Giroud (Montpellier, £13m)- hit
Lukas Podoloski (Cologne, £11m)- hit
Ron Vlaar (Feyenoord, £3m) hit
Karim El Ahmadi (Feyenoord, £2m) miss
Brett Holman (AZ Alkmaar, free), miss
Eden Hazard (Lille, £32m) hit
Oscar (Internacional, £25m) hit
Marko Marin (Werder Bremen, £7m) miss
Cesar Azpilicueta (Marseille, £7m) hit
Steven Naismith (Rangers, free) hit
 Kevin Mirallas (Olympiakos, £5.2m) hit
Mladen Petric (Hamburg, free) hit
Ashkan Dejagah (Wolsfburg, £2m) hit
Fabio Borini (Roma, £7m) miss
Shinji Kagawa (Dortmund, £17m), miss
Alexander Buttner (Vitesse Arnhem, £4m) hit
Vurnon Anita (Ajax, £6.7m) hit
Romain Amalfitano (Reims, free) miss
Steven Whittaker (Rangers, free), hit
 Alexander Tettey (Rennes, £1.25M), hit
Samba Diakite (Nancy, £4m), miss
Esteban Granero (Real Madrid, £9m),miss
Maya Yoshida (VVV-Venlo, £2M) hit
Emmanuel Mayuka (Young Boys Berne, £3M) miss
Steven Davis (Rangers, free),hit
, Geoff Cameron (Houston Dynamo, £2.3m), hit
Jamie Ness (Rangers, free) miss
Maurice Edu (Rangers, £4m), miss
Michu (Rayo Vallecano, £2m),hit
 Jose Manuel Flores (Genoa, £2m), hit
Jan Vertonghen (Ajax, £10m), hit
Gylfi Sigurdsson (Hoffenheim, £8m),hit
Markus Rosenberg (Werder Bremen, free), miss
Claudio Yacob (Racing Club de Avellaneda, free) hit
Modibo Maiga (Sochaux, £5m), miss
Alou Diarra (Marseille, £2m), miss
Arouna Kone (Levante, £3m), hit
Ivan Ramis (Real Mallorca, £4.5m),hit
Matthew Lowton (Sheffield United, £3m)- hit
Joe Bennett (Middlesbrough, £2.5m) hit
Victor Moses (Wigan, £9m), miss
Steven Pienaar (Tottenham, £4.5m), hit
Hugo Rodallega (Wigan, free), hit
 Kieran Richardson (Sunderland, undisclosed), miss
Joe Allen (Swansea, £15m), miss
Jack Rodwell (Everton, £12m), miss
Robin van Persie (Arsenal, £24m) hit
Gael Bigirimana (Coventry, £1.5M) hit
Sebastian Bassong (Tottenham, £3m), hit
Robert Snodgrass (Leeds, £3m) hit
 Michael Turner (Sunderland, £1.5m), hit
 Jacob Butterfield (Barnsley, £1.6m), miss
Mark Bunn (Blackburn, £1.5m) hit
Junior Hoilett (Blackburn, £3m), miss
Park Ji-sung (Manchester United, £5m), miss
 Robert Green (West Ham, free), miss
Ryan Nelsen (Tottenham, free), hit
Andrew Johnson (Fulham, free), miss
Jose Bosingwa (Chelsea, free) miss
Chris Gunter (Nottingham Forest, £2.5m), miss
Adrian Mariappa (Watford, £2.5m), miss
 Pavel Pogrebnyak (Fulham, free), miss
 Danny Guthrie (Newcastle, free), hit
Garath McCleary (Nottingham Forest, free) hit
Nicky Shorey (West Brom, free) hit
, Jay Rodriguez (Burnley, £6m), hit
Nathaniel Clyne (Crystal Palace, £3m), hit
 Michael Kightly (Wolves, £2m) miss
Louis Saha (Tottenham, free) miss
Carlos Cuellar (Aston Villa, free) hit
Steven Fletcher (Wolves, £15m) hit
 Adam Johnson (Manchester City £10m) miss
Mousa Dembele (Fulham, £15m), hit
Emmanuel Adebayor (Manchester City, £5m),miss
Ben Foster (Birmingham, £2m),hit
Matt Jarvis (Wolves, £10.75m), miss
 James Collins (Aston Villa, £3m),  hit
Stephen Henderson (Portsmouth, £1m),  miss
George McCartney (Sunderland, £1m), miss
Jussi Jaaskelainen (Bolton, free), hit
Mohamed Diame (Wigan, free), hit

48 out of 81= 59.2%


There weren’t as many deadline day signings as usual last year, so maybe the stats are slightly unreliable, nonetheless, there seems to be a trend that the better signings are made before deadline day and a number of deadline day signings can be seen as evidence of panic buying, namely the Scott Sinclair transfer to Manchester City followed by Roberto Mancini using him sparingly. 

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