Friday, 19 July 2013

Premier League Predictions and transfer analysis

Now we are into the later stages of July, the transfer market will start to hot up with teams intensifying their preparations for the new Premier League season. Looking at the premier league, the competition seems stronger than ever with many teams strengthening so far this summer but very few quality players have headed for the exit door. I will evaluate where each team needs to strengthen in this transfer window and their realistic expectations for the next season.

Arsenal

Another summer involving a flurry of speculation has followed another season of Arsenal being seemingly happy to finish fourth. This is not surprising given their significant weaknesses in the squad compared to the top three. Attempts are being made to strengthen with a new striker being the main target and Gonzalo Higuain and Luis Suarez have both been mentioned as targets. Arsenal are definitely in need of a goalscorer with no Arsenal player hitting the 15 goal mark last season as Theo Walcott top scored with 14. However, if Arsenal are to make a serious title challenge this season, other areas also need to be strengthened particularly with all their rivals looking to strengthen. The centre of the midfield looks to lack depth taking into account the injury proneness of Abou Diaby and Jack Wilshere. Mikel Arteta is ageing and Arsenal could do with a couple of defensive minded midfielders to free up their star player Santi Cazorla to maraud forward. Whilst Arsenal’s first choice defence looks strong on paper, they could do with an additional centre back to challenge Thomas Vermaelen, Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker. This could be the year Arsenal finally finish outside the top 4 with the other clubs in contention all looking to be strengthening and significant investment is needed to put them on an even keel with the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham.

Prediction 5th
Key Man- Santi Cazorla

Aston Villa

The Jekyll and Hyde team of the Premier League last season and it’s difficult to know what to make of their prospects for next season. They have already added 6 new signings and whilst all of them are quite young, they all have a decent amount of first team experience with the exception of Jed Steer. Despite this there is still a clear lack of experience within the squad and Paul Lambert could do with adding a couple of experienced heads to the squad. However, with 6 signings already made, I can’t see there being many more incomings now they’ve secured the future of Christian Benteke. This youthful Villa squad will only improve after a tough season of premier league football last time out and I can see them finishing safely in midtable.

Prediction 12th
Key Man- Christian Benteke

Cardiff City

For me, Cardiff are the strongest of the newly promoted clubs. They possess a solid defensive unit and possess several useful striking options. In Craig Bellamy they have a player who may miss a few games through injury, but is capable of being a genuine match winner which is invaluable in a relegation battle. For me, they could do with a quality winger and also a defensive midfielder, but the bids made for Victor Wanyama and Tom Ince shows they have funds to spend and so I expect Cardiff City to safely avoid relegation this season.

Prediction 15th
Key Man- Peter Whittingham

Chelsea

For me, Chelsea are the team to watch in the Premier League title race this season. They have high class throughout the team and with Jose Mourinho returning to Stamford Bridge, they are my tip for the title. I expect Eden Hazard to be even better next season and the addition of Andre Schurrle adds even more flair to their attacking unit. I believe Romelu Lukaku will shine in attack in the aftermath of a hugely successful loan spell of West Brom and whilst they could do with a world class option to compete with Lukaku and Fernando Torres (as I expect Demba Ba to leave) and a holding midfielder to compete with John Obi Mikel they have genuine quality in all positions already in their squad.


Prediction 1st
Key Man- Juan Mata

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace for me, will have a hard time remaining in the Premier League. I see a squad made up of solid championship players but many of which have had opportunities at premier league level before and never looked comfortable at that level. The likes of Peter Ramage, Jerome Thomas, Danny Gabbidon and Stephen Dobbie have all been part of premier league clubs and have either performed poorly or not been given appearances at their former clubs. The loss of Wilfried Zaha provides a huge hole in the team and Glenn Murray could miss the start of the season leaving Palace in a pickle. Much will depend on Dwight Gayle and how he adapts to the premier league, but this is a pressure he hasn’t faced before playing at the top level and it is harsh to expect so much of him at such a young age. As regards to strengthening, the midfield is the key area that needs strengthening but reinforcements would be good all over the park. Whilst I see Palace as doomed, they proved the doubters wrong last year to gain promotion and with Ian Holloway at the helm, anything is possible.

Prediction 19th.
Key man-Dwight Gayle

Everton

Everton will be an interesting team to watch this season. Not least because Roberto Martinez will try to get his team to play in the style of his Wigan side which contrasts to Everton’s successful tactics in recent years being built on using the aerial presence of Maroune Fellaini. Keeping hold of Fellaini and Baines will be a big test of the new manager’s capabilities and if they should leave, it would be imperative that Martinez spends the money correctly. David Moyes has worked wonders at the club on limited resources and it will be very tough for Martinez to replicate Moyes’s success. In terms of the transfer market, Everton’s main weakness looks to be in central midfield where they could do with adding a couple of quality players and I would not be surprised if Martinez made another signing from Wigan in the shape of James McCarthy, particularly if Fellaini leaves the club. Arouna Kone looks to be a good addition to an Everton side that struggled to find a goalscorer due to a poor season last time for Nikicia Jelavic. However, I can see Everton struggling to adapt to the transition of manager and falling short of their points tally from last season.

Prediction 8th
Key Man- Kevin Miralles

Fulham

Fulham have a strong first team line up but lack depth. The course of their season depends on if they can keep their key players fit. They lack depth in the fullback department, in central midfield and especially upfront where a long-term injury to Dimitar Berbatov or Bryan Ruiz could see them fall into the relegation battle. However, with the backing of the new club owners I expect them to bolster their squad and to finish safely in midtable once again. In terms of their first team, a quality centre-midfielder would increase their prospects of a top half finish and maybe even a push for Europe.

Prediction 10th
Key Man- Bryan Ruiz

Hull City

In my opinion Hull City will face an uphill struggle to survive this season. Their defensive unit looks strong enough, but they are lacking attacking potential in their squad. Danny Graham is a good loan signing and he will score goals but he can’t do it on his own and I can’t see where the rest of the goals are coming from. In my opinion Hull need to sign 2 wingers and 2 strikers to have a chance of survival. The likes of Robert Koren, George Boyd and Ahmed Elmohamady will have to perform exceptionally for Hull to have a good season.

Prediction 20th
Key Man- Sone Aluko

Liverpool

Liverpool will start the season aiming for a top 4 finish and I expect them to be in contention. Brendan Rodgers has improved their attacking options in recent months and a fluid attacking formation has led to some impressive performances not least the 6-0 drubbing of Newcastle, but they need to cut out the inconsistencies in their performances. I do think they need to replace Jamie Carragher with a top class centre-back as Sebastian Coates has not been trusted by Brendon Rodgers and Kolo Toure is not the defender he used to be and should be used sparingly. I can see Luis Suarez leaving this summer and he would have to be replaced with a high class striker. If they are serious about challenging for the champions league, a centre midfielder is also a must due to the lack of depth in the position. However, I expect them to fall just short of the top 4 as I think their midfield lacks the quality options that Tottenham have.

Prediction 6th
Key Man- Steven Gerrard

Man City

The additions they have made so far have been impressive and have ironed out issues leftover from last season. Jesus Navas gives them increased width, Fernandinho adding increased quality to the defensive midfield position and Alvaro Negrado offering more depth upfront. An additional striker is still needed but that seems to be close to happening with Stevan Jovetic close to joining. I still believe they could do with another defensive midfielder and also a centre back due to the problems caused by the absences of Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure in key games last year. I think they will finish 2nd to Chelsea but I think it will be a close run thing they will need returns to form for David Silva and Sergio Aguero for this to happen however.

Prediction 2nd
Key Man- Yaya Toure

Man United

It will be interesting to see what happens at Manchester United in the wake of Ferguson’s departure. As ever there is a need to strengthen in midfield to provide a high class partner for Michael Carrick. I think they could also do with strengthening out wide with Nani and Ashley Young flattering to deceive for large parts of last season. In defence they look strong although if they could sign target Leighton Baines it would be a welcome addition. Upfront, there would be a need to replace Wayne Rooney should he depart but if he stays I can’t see any need to strengthen upfront. Whilst David Moyes is a high class manager I think it will be a difficult first season for him as he attempts to live up to Ferguson’s legacy, I hope they give him time though as I think he will be a success in the long-term.
Prediction 3rd
Key Man- Michael Carrick

Newcastle United

Being the only club yet to sign a senior player means that Newcastle fans are restless. The main frustration for many Newcastle fans is that they only need a couple of players to have a decent squad. Fans have lost faith in Alan Pardew due to his insistence on playing players out of position. Looking at the squad they need at least another 2 strikers and probably 3 should Papiss Cisse leave the club. It is likely that Yohan Cabaye will leave the club so Newcastle need to replace him and use some of the money to buy a goalscorer. I fear for Newcastle however, if they can keep Hatem Ben Arfa and Sylvain Marveaux fit I think they will avoid the drop.

Prediction 16th
Key Man- Hatem Ben Arfa

Norwich City

Chris Hughton has made some impressive signings already in this transfer window and is still looking to add to these. He’s recognised that a lack of goals last season was the major problem for Norwich and has invested in Ricky Van Wolfswinkel who has an impressive scoring record abroad. They could do with another striker to share the goal scoring load and another centre midfielder to add some creativity to the middle of the park due to their signings I expect Norwich to be safely in midtable.

Prediction 11th
Key Man- Ricky Van Wolfswinkel

Southampton

The future looks bright for Saints fans, the chairman Nicola Cortese is splashing the cash and Southampton have a young and exciting team and manager. Last season they played some fantastic football and were let down by being weak defensively, the additions of Dejan Lovren and defensive midfielder Victor Wanyama should make them stronger in defence. They should be even stronger in attack next season as Gaston Ramirez showed signs at the end of the season that he was adapting to the division, whilst Luke Shaw and Nathanial Clyne will continue to improve. Whilst more defensive reinforcements are necessary I can see a top half finish for the Saints.

Prediction 9th.
Key Man- Gaston Ramirez

Stoke City

In my opinion Tony Pulis’s Stoke had gone stale in the last 2 seasons. Early in their premier league stay Stoke produced goals from good play from wingers Matty Etherington and Jermaine Pennant. In recent seasons, Pulis has chosen to deploy teams with little width with the likes of Charlie Adam patrolling the flanks. The challenge for Mark Hughes is to bring that width back. For me Stoke need to strengthen all across their midfield, upfront and at fullback to progress and I’m not sure Mark Hughes was the right appointment to move Stoke forward. The ageing Peter Crouch showed signs of being on the decline and it is tough to see where their goals are coming from next season. Whilst Huth and Shawcross provide strength in defence, the backup options look limited with a lot of pressure being placed on Marc Muniesa and history shows that young defenders can take their time to adjust to premier league football. I’m predicting a tough season for Stoke.

Prediction 18th
Key player- Ryan Shawcross

Sunderland

Of all the teams previewed, Sunderland are hardest to predict in regards to next season. There has already been a flurry of new signings, many of whom are from the Italian league fuelling optimism in the North-East. However, as has been shown many times over the years, too many changes to the squad could cause catastrophic ends. Sunderland’s desire to offload experienced heads such as Lee Cattermole and Phil Bardsley could leave Sunderland with a lack of premier league experience, with several new signings trying to find their feet at the same time in a tough league. Furthermore, Paulo Di Canio is a volatile manager who has yet to experience a  sustained period of failure in his short managerial career and with Sunderland it is likely a bad patch will come at some point in this season.  Seeing how Di Canio’s caused friction with players over his managerial career even in successful sides it is possible that a feud between the players and the manager could ensue before the end of the season.

 Prediction 17th
Key Player- Steven Fletcher

Swansea

This time last season I was predicting Swansea for relegation, I wasn’t sure how they’d respond to a change of manager. I’ve been made to look very stupid as Swansea under the guidance of Michael Laudrup played some excellent passing football last season. This summer they have strengthened from a strong position already including the marquee signing of Wilfried Bony. For me, Swansea are the team to watch this season and if anyone can challenge last season’s top 7 it’s them I think. If I was looking at where they should strengthen I’d say in defensive midfield but in every other position, I’d argue they look very strong and they look a very good bet for a comfortable top half finish.

Prediction 7th
Key Player- Michu

Tottenham

I think Andre Villas- Boas has taken Tottenham to the next level in his management. He’s got them playing fluid football and Gareth Bale in particular has thrived under this interchangeable football. They have already added Paulinho to their squad and I think they are only 2 or 3 quality signings away from a title challenge. I think a top quality striker is on the agenda for Tottenham with Emmanuel Adebayor flattering to deceive and Jermain Defoe whilst being a very good goalscorer, does not connect the play well enough to be the main striker at a top 4 club. A winger to provide competition for Aaron Lennon would be useful as Spurs look light in that area and lastly a fullback to replace Benoit Assou-Ekotto who doesn’t have the positional sense required in my opinion to be a top 4 fullback. I think Spurs will make additions this summer and will pip Arsenal and Liverpool to 4th place.

Prediction 4th
Key Player- Gareth Bale

West Brom

West Brom had a great season last time out under Steve Clarke. This year they will have to do it without Romelu Lukaku’s goals and I think this will have a detrimental impact to their squad despite the addition of the ageing Nicolas Anelka. Peter Odemwingie looks set to leave and Markus Rosenberg had an unimpressive first season so it is clear that Steve Clarke needs to add to his options in attack. For me, they could also do with adding a couple of quality wide men and a creative centre midfielder. I don’t expect West Brom to have as good a season as they had last time out but I don’t see them being drawn into the relegation battle.
Prediction 14th
Key Player- James Morrison

West Ham

West Ham had a solid return to the Premier League last time out and I expect them to continue in a similar fashion next season. The permanent addition of Andy Carroll is a fantastic signing for them but they could do with some cover and competition for the powerful target man. In addition, I think West Ham could do with a bit of added quality in the centre of the park and maybe an extra winger as I’m not convinced about the capabilities of Ricardo Vaz Te. I can’t see West Ham being dragged into the relegation battle and they may even threaten the top half if things go their way.

Prediction 13th

Key Player- Andy Carroll

No comments:

Post a Comment