Friday, 24 January 2014

Is January the time for panic buys?

January is for panic buys?

It’s often said that the January window is there as a last resort for clubs if their season isn’t going well. Pundits have frequently claimed that teams do not get value for money in this window. I have compared the transfers of the last two summer transfer windows with the last 3 winter transfer windows to find out if this is true. I will rate each signing out of 10 and take an average of the quality of summer transfers and then of the winter transfers. Players have to have played 10 matches to qualify in the interest of fairness. I have done it based on the 2011 and 2012 windows as it is too soon to judge some of this summer’s transfers. Obviously this is only as I have judged it so there could be some inaccuracies but it will provide a rough outline.

Summer transfer window signings

Arsenal-
Santi Cazorla- 9
Olivier Giroud- 8
Lukas Podolski- 6
Alex Oxlade- Chamberlain- 7
Gervinho- 4
Carl Jenkinson- 7
Per Mertesacker- 9
Andre Santos-3
Mikel Arteta- 7

Arsenal average= 6.7


Aston Villa
-          Charles N’Zogbia 2
-          Shay Given- 4
-          Alan Hutton- 3
-          Matthew Lowton- 7
-          Ron Vlaar- 7
-          Karim el Ahmadi- 5
-          Jordan Bowery- 4
-          Joe Bennett- 4
-          Christian Benteke- 8
Aston Villa Average= 4.89



Blackburn
-          Simon Vuckevic- 3
-          David Goodwillie- 3
-          Radoslav Petrovic- 4
-          Scott Dann- 4
-          Yakubu-8
Blackburn average= 4.4



Bolton
-          Chris Eagles- 7
-          Tyrone Mears- 6
-          David N’Gog- 5
-          Darren Pratley- 6
-          Nigel Reo-Coker- 4
-           
Bolton average = 5.6


Chelsea
-          Eden Hazard- 9
-          Oscar- 7
-          Victor Moses- 5
-          Cesar Azpilicueta- 8
-          Juan Mata- 9
-          Oriol Romeu- 6
-          Raul Meireles- 4
Chelsea average= 6.86


Everton
-          Steven Pienaar- 8
-          Steven Naismith- 6
-          Kevin Mirallas- 8
-          Bryan Oviedo- 6
Everton average= 7


Fulham
-          Hugo Rodallega- 4
-          Kieran Richardson- 4
-          Dimitar Berbatov- 7
-          Ashkan Dejagah- 6
-          Patjim Kasami- 4
-          John Arne Riise- 6
-          Bryan Ruiz- 4
Fulham average = 5


Liverpool
-          Stewart Downing- 3
-          Jordan Henderson- 8
-          Charlie Adam- 3
-          Jose Enrique- 7
-          Sebastien Coates- 4
-          Craig Bellamy- 7
-          Joe Allen- 5
-          Fabio Borini- 3
Liverpool average= 5


Man City
-          Jack Rodwell- 4
-          Scott Sinclair- 3
-          Javi Garcia- 4
-          Matija Nastasic- 8
-          Sergio Aguero- 9
-          Samir Nasri- 7
-          Gael Clichy- 8
-          Stefan Savic- 3
Man City average= 5.75


Man Utd
-          Shinji Kagawa- 4
-          Alexander Buttner- 4
-          Robin Van Persie- 9
-          David De Gea- 8
-          Phil Jones- 5
-          Ashley Young- 4
Man Utd average= 5.67


Newcastle
-          Vurnon Anita- 7
-          Gael Bigirimana- 6
-          Davide Santon- 7
-          Yohan Cabaye- 9
-          Gabriel Obertan- 3
-          Sylvain Marveaux- 5
-          Demba Ba- 8
Newcastle average =6.43


Norwich
-          Sebastien Bassong- 7
-          Robert Snodgrass- 6
-          Michael Turner- 6
-          Alexander Tettey-  6
-          Mark Bunn- 6
-          Steve Morison- 5
-          James Vaughan- 3
-          Anthony Pilkington-8
-          Elliott Bennett- 7
-          Bradley Johnson- 6
Norwich City average= 6


QPR
-          Junior Hoillett- 3
-          Park Ji Sung- 2
-          Samba Diakite- 3
-          Robert Green- 6
-          Ryan Nelsen- 7
-          Andrew Johnson- 3
-          Jose Bosingwa- 2
-          Estaban Granero- 3
-          Stephane Mbia- 4
-          DJ Campbell- 4
-          Armand Traore- 4
-          Danny Gabbidon- 4
-          Jay Bothroyd- 3
-          Joey Barton- 5
-          Shaun Wright Phillips- 2
-          Anton Ferdinand- 3
QPR average= 3.6


Reading
-          Chris Gunter- 4
-          Adrian Mariappa- 5
-          Pavel Pogrebnyak- 2
-          Danny Guthrie – 6
-          Gareth Mcleary- 5
-          Nicky Shorey- 3
Reading average= 4.16


Southampton
-          Emmanuel Mayuka- 4
-          Jay Rodriguez- 8
-          Steven Davis- 7
-          Paulo Gazzaniga- 5
-          Nathaniel Clyne- 8
-          Maya Yoshida- 5
-          Gaston Ramires- 4
Southampton average= 5.86


Stoke
-          Michael Kightly- 4
-          Geoff Cameron- 7
-          Steven N’Zonzi -7
-          Jonathan Woodgate- 5
-          Matthew Upson- 4
-          Peter Crouch- 5
-          Wilson Palacios- 3
Stoke average= 5


Sunderland
-          Louis Saha- 3
-          Carlos Cuellar- 6
-          Steven Fletcher- 6
-          Adam Johnson- 5
-          Connor Wickham- 2
-          Craig Gardner- 6
-          Ahmed Elmohamady- 5
-          Ji Dong Won- 4
-          Wes Brown- 6
-          James McClean-6
-          John O’Shea- 7
-          Sebastian Larsson- 7
-          David Vaughan- 5
-          Keiren Westwood- 6
Sunderland average= 5.29


Swansea
-          Michu- 9
-          Chico Flores- 8
-          Pablo Hernandez- 7
-          Michel Vorm- 8
-          Danny Graham- 6
-          Leroy Lita- 3
-          Wayne Routledge- 7
-          Gerhard Tremmel- 6

Swansea average= 6.75


Tottenham
-          Moussa Dembele- 7
-          Emmanuel Adebayor- 5
-          Jan Vertonghen- 8
-          Gylfi Sigurdsson- 6
-          Hugo Lloris- 8
-          Clint Dempsey- 4
-          Scott Parker- 7
-          Brad Friedel-7
Tottenham average= 6.5


West Brom
-          Ben Foster- 7
-          Markus Rosenberg- 3
-          Claudio Yacob-7
-          Shane Long- 7
-          Zoltan Gera- 6
-          Gareth McAuley- 7
-          Billy Jones- 6
West Brom average= 6.14


West Ham
-          Matt Jarvis- 4
-          Modibo Maiga- 3
-          James Collins- 7
-          George McCartney- 5
-          Jussi Jaaskelainen-6
-          Mohammad Diame- 7
West Ham average= 5.33


Wigan
-          Arouna Kone- 8
-          Ivan Ramis- 7
-          Ali Al Habsi- 6
-          Shaun Maloney- 7
-          David Jones- 5

Wigan average= 6.6


Wolves
-          Roger Johnson- 2
-          Jamie O’Hara- 2
-          Dorus De Vries- 5
Wolves average= 3


The Average rating over the division in the last two seasons of summer transfers is 5.52 out of a total of 171 players

January Signings
Arsenal
-          Naxto Monreal- 6

Aston Villa
-          Yacouba Sylla- 5
-          Darren Bent- 3
-          Jean Makoun- 3
Aston Villa average= 3.67


Birmingham
-          Curtis Davies- 7

Blackburn Rovers
-          Marcus Olsson- 6
-          Bradley Orr- 6
-          Ruben Rochina- 6
-          Mauro Formica- 4
Blackburn average= 5.5


Bolton
-          Tim Ream- 4
-          Marvin Sordell- 4
-          David Wheater- 4
Bolton average= 4


Chelsea
-          Gary Cahill-7
-          Demba Ba- 3
-          David Luiz-7
-          Fernando Torres- 3
Chelsea average= 5


Everton
-          Darren Gibson- 5
-          Nikica Jelavic- 6
-          Apostolos Vellios- 6
Everton average= 5.67


Fulham
-          Steve Sidwell- 8



Liverpool
-          Daniel Sturridge- 8
-          Phillipe Coutinho- 7
-          Andy Carroll- 2
-          Luis Suarez- 9
Liverpool average= 6.5


Man City
-          Edin Dzeko- 7



Man Utd
-          Anders Lindegaard- 6


Newcastle
-          Papiss Cisse- 5
-          Mathieu Debuchy-8
-          Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa- 6
-          Yoan Gouffran- 8
-          Moussa Sissoko- 7
-          Massadio Haidara- 7
-          Hatem Ben Arfa- 7
Newcastle average= 6.86


Norwich
-          Johnny Howson- 7
-          Ryan Bennett- 6
-          Luiciano Becchio- 3
Norwich average =5.33


QPR
-          Nedum Onouha- 4
-          Djibril Cisse- 4
-          Bobby Zamora- 3
-          Loic Remy- 8
-          Chris Samba- 2
-          Jermaine Jenas- 4
QPR average= 4.17



Reading
-          Hope Akpan- 7
-          Stephen Kelly- 6
-          Nick Blackman- 4
Reading average= 5.67


Stoke
-          Jermaine Pennant- 6
-           
Sunderland
-          Alfred N’Diaye- 4
-          Danny Graham 3
-          Stephane Sessegnon- 6
Sunderland average= 4.33


Tottenham
-          Lewis Holtby- 7
-          Steven Pienaar- 4
-          Ryan Nelson- 5
-          Louis Saha- 6
Tottenham average= 5.5


West Brom
-          Liam Ridgewell -6
-          Keith Andrews- 5
West Brom average= 5.5


West Ham
-          Joe Cole- 4
-          Gary O’Neill- 6
-          Demba Ba- 7

West Ham average= 5.66


Wigan
-          Jean Beausejour- 4
-          Roger Espinoza- 6
-          Connor Sammon- 3
Wigan average= 4.33


Wolves
-          Adam Hammill- 4

The average rating of premier league transfers in the last three years based on a sample of 62 players is 5.39


So whilst there is a slightly better result for transfers that have happened in the summer windows, it is not a major difference and so does not live up to the widely held view that January is a poor time to do your business.